Rate cuts may be at end, RBA boss signals after latest pause


Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has dashed the hopes of Australians still eager for more cuts to interest rates. Photo: AAP
Reserve Bank boss Michele Bullock has warned there may be no more rate cuts to come for Australian borrowers, after Tuesdayâs decision to hit pause.
But she said that might actually be good news for Australians, after three cuts to the official cash rate this year.
âWe know that many households, for example, with mortgages, theyâve actually been saving rather than spending everything. So as their mortgage repayments have come down, theyâve opted not to reduce their mortgage payments. Theyâve maintained them. So thatâs suggesting a bit of caution,â Bullock said after the central bank board meeting on Tuesday.
âOne upside scenario is a positive one, that they react to that and they start consuming again â thatâs good for business, good for employment. So thatâs not a bad news scenario.
âIf that means that we donât lower interest rates further, then I wouldnât say thatâs not necessarily a bad news story.â
With the Reserveâs decision to hold rates steady at 3.6 per cent, attention has turned to when â or even if â there might be another cut.
Tuesdayâs decision means borrowers will have to wait until at least November for more mortgage relief. But hotter-than-expected inflation and an enduringly robust labour market have raised the prospect the central bank might have delivered its last rate cut after 75 basis points of cuts since February.
âWe know that consumer confidence is still a little bit on the low side. So itâs possible that doesnât eventuate, the upside doesnât eventuate,â Bullock said.
âAnd thereâs some downside that eventuates and that affects the employment market. That would have different implications potentially for monetary policy.â
In its statement, the RBA board said labour market conditions had been broadly steady, an update from its August statement when it said the labour market was easing.
The central bank revealed it was sensitive to the risk that inflation could overshoot its latest forecasts.
âOn the domestic side, stronger-than-expected data on growth and inflation may indicate that households have become more comfortable consuming as real incomes and wealth rise,â it said.
âIf this continues, it may make it easier for businesses to pass on cost increases and lead to more demand for labour.
âWith signs that private demand is recovering, indications that inflation may be persistent in some areas and labour market conditions overall remaining stable, the board decided that it was appropriate to maintain the cash rate at its current level at this meeting.â
The central bank also remains alert to global uncertainty, with US President Donald Trumpâs tariffs still causing havoc, but monetary policy was well-placed to respond decisively to international developments.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said while millions of Australians would have wanted more rate relief, the decision was expected.
âRates have already come down three times this year and thatâs a good thing,â he said.
âThis progress comes at the same time as weâve seen inflation tick up in parts of the world including the United States, Canada and New Zealand and remain stubbornly high in places like the United Kingdom.â
Opposition treasury spokesman Ted OâBrien, however, took aim at government. He said Australians were doing it harder than they needed because of the Albanese governmentâs âspending spreeâ.
âThere is a reason why rates have been higher for longer in Australia, and that is this Albanese government ensuring that they keep spending and a big government approach is their mode of operation,â he said.
âThis has not changed and we continue to see that in the figures that are released over time.â
Monthly inflation jumped to 3 per cent in August, snuffing out any hopes of a rate cut in September.
Markets significantly repriced the odds for further rate reductions after last weekâs consumer price index print, with only one more cut priced in this cycle before the RBAâs announcement.
Market reaction to the decision was muted, given how widely it was expected, but the Australian dollar and bond yields edged up after 2.30pm.
-with AAP
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